Amazing Divergence
This is Anadarco Petroleum [red] and the UNG natural gas ETF [blue] from Nov '07 to Nov '08:
This makes sense seeing as APC is very much a natgas company.
Now look at what's happened Nov '08 to Nov '09:
This is where you are left scratching your head. Why is a nat gas company up 60% when its product is getting 60% less when sold?
Unless you think natgas prices are going to return to and blow through last summer's highs I see a fundamental disconnect.
Labels: Economics, Investing
Traditions Best Preserved
The President of The United States of America bows to no one and the US Flag is dipped in deference to none. It isn't arrogance or hubris or bravado. It is homage to and acknowledgement of a revolutionary concept that has changed the face of the world several times over.
That this fundamental precept of our raison d'etre has been abandoned by the office holder of the moment is personally deeply painful. Sorry. I cannot go on without violating decorum.
Labels: metablog, moral hazard
Price Drop La Loma
Rancho Margarita - A rare find in Somis! This 4BR/3BTH home sits on 11.66 acres with spectacular ocean and valley views from nearly every room. Open floorplan with common areas upstairs and three of four bedrooms downstairs. Numerous balconies, large windows and sliding doors bring the outside in. Large master suite with private patio and ocean/island views from the bathtub. Pool, spa and BBQ area are set to the ultimate backdrop. Four car extra-deep garage with additional work area. Large downstairs laundry room could be second kitchen to create potential inlaw unit. The hilltop home is surrounded by stately pine and sycamore trees, providing ultimate privacy from the few neighbors. A paved private road winds through the orchard, giving direct access to La Loma Ave; stop at the 2-stall barn with separate tack room and outside pen area - ideal for your farm animals. Nine shares of Del Norte ag water and private reservoir irrigate approx 800 avocado trees.
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Nov 10, 2009 Price Changed $1,449,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Oct 13, 2009 Listed $1,550,000 -- VCRDS #90016961
Aug 13, 2009 Price Changed $1,550,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
Apr 12, 2009 Listed $1,750,000 -- SoCalMLS #F1804770
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Fifty thousand dollars off. $301,000 off original price. Sorry but 3% doesn't freshen the listing. Hat tip to "Effective Demand" who noticed the price drop. Maybe 20% more and I can afford it and it makes sense.
Backing out the taxable basis ($2100/yr) it looks like a 1989/1990 sale for approximately $160k. Nice.
Labels: California, Housing, Ventura
Tuition Fee Rose Smell
Why Are We Destroying Public Education?
University of California Students and Staff Prepare for System-Wide Strike to Protest Cuts
The governing body of the University of California system, the Board of Regents, is preparing to vote on a major tuition hike for both undergraduate and graduate students. Undergraduate tuition would rise an average 32 percent, while some graduate schools would begin charging thousands of dollars for programs that are currently tuition-free. The Regents are meeting Thursday at UCLA, where students from across the state are converging for what organizers have dubbed a “Crisis Fest,” including mass protests, civil disobedience and teach-ins.
Regents bring debate to campusBy Laura Belyavski
Nov. 17, 2009 at 3:38 a.m.
Beginning this afternoon, Covel Commons will host a three-day UC Board of Regents meeting.
The board is scheduled to vote on the budget proposal that goes through the 2010-2011 fiscal year and includes the controversial 32 percent student fee increase.
The initial 15 percent rise in fees would take effect winter quarter, and a second increase of the same rate would take place fall 2010. Since the second hike would be based on the increased winter quarter fee level, fees would rise a total of 32 percent from their current level.
UC Board of Regents Meeting
The regents will meet at UCLA from Tuesday to Thursday at Covel Commons.
Tuesday, Nov. 17
• Vote on external financing for the Santa Monica/Orthopaedic Replacement Hospital and a parking structure at UCLA
• Vote on the proposed 2009-2010 state capital investments budget
Wednesday, Nov. 18
• Vote on 2009-2010 midyear and 2010-2011 fee increases
• Vote on 2010-2011 professional school fees Thursday, Nov. 19
• Agreement with Los Angeles County on the Martin Luther King Jr. Hospital
Compiled by Samantha Masunaga, Bruin senior staff.
Both UC spokesman Peter King and student regent-designate Jesse Cheng said they expect the proposal to pass.
“I would be surprised if it didn’t pass, but I’ve been surprised in my life many, many times,” King said.
...
“They need to do what they’re going to do,” King said.
Labels: California
SoCal ROI for Sept '08 to Sept '09
First some background and the results for July:
40 years ago Ventura and Orange counties were virtually identical. Obviously they've taken different paths to get where they are today. In one respect however they have roughly paced each other; median housing prices. For one month at the peak the Ventura median exceeded Orange. With the smaller base Ventura is more exagerated and quicker to respond.
Here are the "returns" for your housing investment purchase of the median house in SoCal Jul '08:
Los Angeles $80k down payment $6600/mo equity decline -99%/yr return
Orange $92k down payment $3400/mo equity decline -44%/yr return
Riverside $52k down payment $6200/mo equity decline -144%/yr return
San Bernardino $46k down payment $7500/mo equity decline -195%/yr return
San Diego $44k down payment $3700/mo equity decline -61%/yr return
Ventura $64k down payment $3800/mo equity decline -56%/yr return
I'd like to call your attention to what happened to the knife catchers in the Inland Empire (Riverside & San Bernardino) last year. Now, extrapolate. The IE has in the past been a leading indicator of the Coast. Ruh roh. I expect another leg down in the coastal communities but with substantial local variations.
Here's October:
Los Angeles $72k down payment $2500/mo equity decline -42%/yr return
Orange $85k down payment $340/mo equity
increase +4.7%/yr return
Riverside $47k down payment $4375/mo equity decline -114%/yr return
San Bernardino $41k down payment $4580/mo equity decline -134%/yr return
San Diego $66k down payment $250/mo equity decline -3%/yr return
Ventura $77k down payment $1100/mo equity decline -43%/yr return
So much for buying at the bottom. This is definitely a metric worth watching.
Labels: California, Housing
Beach Weather
October 3rd Coolest on RecordThe Bastards can't even bring themselves to say "coldest" opting instead for "coolest." Excerpt:
The October 2009 average temperature for the contiguous United States was the third coolest on record for that month according to NOAA’s State of the Climate report issued today. Based on data going back to 1895, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services provided by NOAA.
The average October temperature of 50.8 degrees F was 4.0 degrees F below the 20th Century average. Preliminary data also reveals this was the wettest October on record with average precipitation across the contiguous United States reaching 4.15 inches, 2.04 inches above the 1901-2000 average.
This puts a chill into the Copenhagen party scheduled next month.
Labels: Politics
Bond FAIL
The LA Times has the
story:
Borrowing $1.9 billion Tuesday via bonds that mature in June 2013, the state was forced to pay a 4% annualized tax-free yield to lure investors to the deal.
Just last Friday the brokerages underwriting the deal, led by Goldman Sachs, had estimated that the bonds could be sold at a yield of 3%.
4% tax free is roughly equivalent to 7.5% taxable. Sad.
Labels: California
Useful Links
Blatantly ripped of from the clever
Reformed Broker:
Here are the Periodic Elements of the Financial Blogosphere:
Rocket Science (macroeconomics, monetary policy, real estate, regulation)
- BP The Big Picture
- EV Economists View
- IP Investment Postcards
- CR Calculated Risk
- BS Baseline Scenario
- CA Cafe Americain
- BC Bronte Capital
- AI Accrued Interest
- MS Global Econ Trend Analysis
- PF Psy-Fi Blog
- MU Musings of a Trader
- KD Market-Ticker
- NC Naked Capitalism
- PK Infectious Greed
- EB Econbrowser
- GM Greg Mankiw’s Blog
- AC Across The Curve
- MR Marginal Revolution
- WB World Beta
- CD Carpe Diem
- SP The Capital Spectator
- CX CXO Advisory
- DS dshort.com
- WR Credit Writedowns
- L Alea Blog
- GR Grasping Reality
- BN Bearish News
- BR Broke and Broker
- GG Gregor Macdonald
Rogues Gallery (misfits, jokers, rebels & knaves)
- DB Dealbreaker
- LF LOLFed
- JR Jr Deputy Accountant
- WF Wall Street Fighter
- KO 1-2 Knockout
- LS Long or Short Capital
- MW Money Is The Way
- ED The Epicurean Dealmaker
- UB Ultimi Barbarorum
- ZH Zero Hedge
- FO footnoted.org
- AU re: The Auditors
- RB The Reformed Broker
- F The Fly
- FB Falkenblog
- CU BlogMaverick
- DY Kid Dynamite
- HL Howard Lindzon
- RO Rortybomb
The Establishment (mainstream media bloggers/ news sites)
- FL Floyd Norris
- FS Felix Salmon
- MB Market Beat
- PB Pony Blog
- MV Minyanville
- DP The Deal Professor
- TT Tech Trader Daily
- TS TheStreet.com
- FT FT Alphaville
- DE DealBook
- JP James Pethokoukis
- HP Huffington Post Business
- CU Curious Capitalist
- EX Economix
- DJ Deal Journal
- TB Matt Taibbi
- FR Freakonomics
- PM Planet Money
- DL The Deal
Stock Operators (traders, technical analysis)
- FF Fund My Mutual Fund
- CC Charts and Coffee
- UP Upside Trader
- KR Kirk Report
- MT My 10,000 Dollars
- SH Slope of Hope
- BC iBankCoin
- ST StockTwits
- MI Trader Mike
- VX Vix and More
- DO Daily Options Report
- CM Cara Community
- MX Maoxian
- QE Quantifiable Edges
- AT Afraid To Trade
- AL AlphaTrends
- JE Jesse Felder
- CN Condor Options
- SW Andy Swan
- TV Tickerville
- LD Surfview Capital
Peanut Gallery (multiple voices and sources of commentary, aggregators)
- NV Investing Contrarian
- BI Business Insider
- AB Angry Bear
- DC Daily Crux
- TM The Money Blogs
- SC Money Science
- BM The Big Money
- TR Take a Report
- CS Wall St Cheat Sheet
- MM Money Morning
- WM Wealth Managers League
- GF Greenfaucet
- OA Wall Street Oasis
- NF Newsflashr
- PH Phil’s Stock World
- TF TraderFeed
- BS BloggingStocks
- SA Seeking Alpha
- TW 24/7 Wall Street
- DR Daily Reckoning
Baby Buffetts (value investors, stock picking, fundamental analysis, activism)
- AR Abnormal Returns
- A Aleph Blog
- BE Bespoke Investment Group
- CW Crossing Wall Street
- EJ Breakout Performance
- GX Gen X Finance
- GB Greenbackd
- IC Investing Caffeine
- DG Dividend Growth Investor
- DI A Dash of Insight
- JM Jeff Matthews
- MF Market Folly
- PC The Pragmatic Capitalist
- RR Random Roger
- VP Value Plays
- CE ContrarianEdge
- MG ModernGraham
Labels: Economics
